Current Position
Burton J. and DeeDee McMurtry Professor at the School of Engineering and Professor of MS&E
Project Intersection
Overview
Professor M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell relates to the project because she is a world authority in engineering risk analysis and management, founding head of the MS&E department at Stanford. Her research focuses on how management decisions and organizational factors influence the failure of complex systems, which connects directly to the chatbot proposal’s aim to mitigate operational risks in agribusiness. The project treats agricultural operation as a system where human fallibility (“chronic forgetfulness”) generates financial risks that technology, acting as a safety and communication mechanism, aims to reduce.
”Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice” (2014)
This research discusses the pillars of risk analysis: assessment, management and communication. The author proposes going beyond blame assignment and focusing on root causes of operational failures. Key terms include “Near-misses,” which are events that did not result in disaster only by luck, and “Accident Precursors,” signs or conditions that indicate the probability of future failure.
Optimization of Risk Communication
- “what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?” “what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?”
- Intersection: The chatbot is essentially a risk communication tool, as it defines the “what” (maintenance/payment reminder), the “who” (rural producer) and the “how” (via dynamic messages and phone calls) to prevent financial losses.
Learning from Near-Misses
- “identifying mistakes and their fundamental causes after a failure or a near-miss is key to learning effectively about what went wrong and how to do better in the future.” “identifying mistakes and their fundamental causes after a failure or a near-miss is key to learning effectively about what went wrong and how to do better in the future.”
- Intersection: The “High-Priority Alerts” system treats a message’s non-reading (an accident precursor) as a “near-miss,” triggering a phone call to “repair” the process before actual financial harm (the real accident) occurs.
Safety Culture and Surveillance
- “A safety culture starts at the head of an organization, with a true commitment to recognize and properly manage unavoidable trade-offs…” “A safety culture starts at the head of an organization, with a true commitment to recognize and properly manage unavoidable trade-offs…”
- Intersection: The chatbot promotes a surveillance culture on the farm by automating the “executive secretary,” ensuring that top management has consolidated data to manage trade-offs between practical operation and accounting health.
Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems” (2009)
The work examines how interactions between “intelligent actors” and technical systems affect failure risk. It uses the “Principal-Agent Model,” where a manager sets incentives and penalties for a subordinate, and the concept of “Shadow Price,” which measures safety gain by relaxing a deadline constraint.
Interaction between Actors and System Performance
- “Many failure risks stem from interactions among actors and on their effects on the performance of the systems involved (technical, political, financial, etc.).” “Many failure risks stem from interactions among actors and on their effects on the performance of the systems involved (technical, political, financial, etc.).“.
- Intersection: The chatbot acts as an additional “intelligent actor” in the agricultural system to ensure that the interaction of the producer (human) with financial management (system) does not degrade business performance due to memory failures.
Impact of Management Decisions on Human Behavior
- “tracks back the sources of these actions in management decisions, including incentives, operational rules and resources available.” “tracks back the sources of these actions in management decisions, including incentives, operational rules and resources available.”.
- Intersection: By providing cash flow reports and proactive alerts, the chatbot alters the available resources and operational rules of the farm, incentivizing the producer to meet deadlines that would previously be ignored due to exhausting routine.
The Risk of “Corner Cutting” under Pressure
- “What the agent does to meet the schedule constraints to which he is subjected can affect the performance of that technical system later in operation, especially if he decides to cut corners…” “What the agent does to meet the schedule constraints to which he is subjected can affect the performance of that technical system later in operation, especially if he decides to cut corners…“.
- Intersection: In agribusiness, field pressure leads the producer to “cut corners” in financial administration (neglecting entries and deadlines). The chatbot mitigates this risk by facilitating data collection via audio and images, eliminating bureaucratic barriers and preventing future failures.
Full papers
M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Improving Risk Management From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice.pdf M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Risks and Games Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems.pdf