Current Position
Professor Burton J. and DeeDee McMurtry in the School of Engineering and Professor of MS&E
Intersection with the Project
Overview
Professor M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell is connected to the project as a world authority on engineering risk analysis and management. She is the founding head of the MS&E department at Stanford. Her research focuses on how management decisions and organizational factors influence failures in complex systems, which directly connects to the chatbot’s proposal to mitigate operational risks in agriculture. The project treats agricultural operations as a system where human fallibility (the “chronic forgetfulness”) generates financial risks that technology, acting as a safety and communication mechanism, aims to reduce.
”Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice” (2014)
This paper discusses the pillars of risk analysis: assessment, management, and communication. The author proposes moving beyond blame assignment and focusing on root causes of operational failures. Key terms include “Near-misses” (near-accidents), which are events that did not result in disaster merely by luck, and “Accident Precursors” (accident precursors), signs or conditions indicating the likelihood of a future failure.
Risk Communication Optimization
- “what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?” “what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?”
- Intersection: The chatbot is essentially a risk communication tool, defining the “what” (maintenance/payment reminder), the “whom” (rural producer), and the “how” (via messages and dynamic phone calls) to prevent financial losses.
Learning from Near-misses
- “identifying mistakes and their fundamental causes after a failure or a near-miss is key to learning effectively about what went wrong and how to do better in the future.” “identifying mistakes and their fundamental causes after a failure or a near-miss is key to learning effectively about what went wrong and how to do better in the future.”
- Intersection: The “High Priority Alerts” system treats the absence of message reading (a failure precursor) as a “near-miss,” triggering a phone call to “repair” the process before financial loss (the actual accident) occurs.
Safety Culture and Vigilance
- “A safety culture starts at the head of an organization, with a true commitment to recognize and properly manage unavoidable trade-offs…” “A safety culture starts at the head of an organization, with a true commitment to recognize and properly manage unavoidable trade-offs…”
- Intersection: The chatbot promotes a culture of vigilance on the farm by automating the “executive secretary,” ensuring that top management has consolidated data to manage trade-offs between practical operations and financial health.
Risks and Games: Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems” (2009)
This work examines how interactions between “intelligent actors” and technical systems affect failure risk. It uses the “Principal-Agent Model” (Principal-Agent Model), where a manager sets incentives and penalties for a subordinate, and the concept of “Shadow Price,” which measures the gain in safety when relaxing a time constraint.
Interaction Between Actors and System Performance
- “Many failure risks stem from interactions among actors and on their effects on the performance of the systems involved (technical, political, financial, etc.).” “Many failure risks stem from interactions among actors and on their effects on the performance of the systems involved (technical, political, financial, etc.).”
- Intersection: The chatbot acts as an additional “intelligent actor” in the agricultural system to ensure that the interaction between the producer (human) and financial management (system) does not degrade business performance due to memory failures.
Impact of Management Decisions on Human Behavior
- “tracks back the sources of these actions in management decisions, including incentives, operational rules and resources available.” “tracks back the sources of these actions in management decisions, including incentives, operational rules and resources available.”
- Intersection: By providing cash flow reports and proactive alerts, the chatbot alters the farm’s available resources and operational rules, encouraging the producer to meet deadlines that would previously be ignored due to exhausting routines.
The Risk of “Cutting Corners” Under Pressure
- “What the agent does to meet the schedule constraints to which he is subjected can affect the performance of that technical system later in operation, especially if he decides to cut corners…” “What the agent does to meet the schedule constraints to which he is subjected can affect the performance of that technical system later in operation, especially if he decides to cut corners…”
- Intersection: In agriculture, field pressure leads producers to “cut corners” in financial administration (neglecting entries and deadlines). The chatbot mitigates this risk by facilitating data collection via audio and images, eliminating bureaucratic barriers and preventing future failures.
Full Papers
M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Improving Risk Management From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice.pdf M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Risks and Games Intelligent Actors and Fallible Systems.pdf